The UAE residential market demonstrated relative resilience during Q1 2026 despite regional conflict impacting transaction activity from late March. Dubai's total sales value reached AED 137.3 billion, with transaction volumes up 3.9% year-on-year, though
 weekly transaction values declined nearly 50% at the conflict's peak compared to pre-conflict averages.
Sales prices continued growing but at a decelerating pace, with Dubai's average prices increasing 9.0% annually, moderating from previous 16-19% appreciation rates. Abu Dhabi's off-plan market drove transaction volumes to more than double year-on-year,
 supported by new project launches, while rental rates showed strong momentum with apartments up 14.3% and townhouses rising 17.8%.
With approximately 59,000 units under construction scheduled for delivery in 2026, the conflict heightened risks to supply-demand equilibrium. Developers began offering incentives including cash discounts, flexible payment plans, and waived fees to maintain
 sales momentum, though these remained constrained to specific segments. The off-plan market showed relative resilience compared to the secondary market, which experienced sharper declines as uncertainty challenged buyer sentiment in certain segments.
For detailed market analysis and insights, <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789547237/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/UAE_Living_Market_Dynamics_-_Q1_2026.pdf" target="_blank">download the full Q1 2026 UAE Living Market Dynamics report.</a>

UAE Residential Market Demonstrates Resilience in Q1 2026

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The UAE residential market experienced notable recalibration during Q2 2026, with both sales prices and rental rates moderating from elevated levels. Dubai's total sales value reached AED 87.9 billion, though transaction volumes declined 28.6% year-on-year
 as regional uncertainty affected buyer sentiment.
Government intervention defined the quarter, with Abu Dhabi freezing rental increases and Dubai launching the Flexi Rent initiative to improve affordability through flexible payment terms. These coordinated policy measures signal a fundamental shift toward
 enhanced tenant protection and market stability.
With approximately 40,000 units scheduled for delivery in H2 2026, developers are increasingly partnering with international brands to differentiate their offerings amid rising competition. Abu Dhabi showed greater resilience with new rental registrations
 up 9.9% in H1 2026, while quarter-on-quarter trends indicate softening momentum across both emirates as cooling demand and expanding supply continue to reshape the market landscape.
For detailed market analysis and insights, <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789547237/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/UAE_Living_Market_Dynamics_-_Q2_2026.pdf" target="_blank">download the full Q2 2026 UAE Living Market Dynamics report.</a>

UAE Residential Market Recalibrates in Q2 2026

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As a result, we&rsquo;ve seen further hikes in government bond yields, with UK gilts rising to their highest level since the financial crisis in 2008 or in some cases even longer. 30-year gilts hit 5.89 per cent earlier this week, their highest since
 1998, with 10-year gilts at 5.25 per cent.
This won&rsquo;t be a welcome return to work for Andy Burnham or his new Chancellor, with estimates suggesting higher bond yields could wipe more than &pound;10bn from John Healey&rsquo;s fiscal headroom in advance of the next Budget on 28 October. And
 with the Office for Budget Responsibility running its usual calculations in the run-up, even if conditions improve it&rsquo;s likely that these will feed into their forecast. Meaning the government will be expected to spend more servicing debt.

There are likely some new leadership wobbles impacting here too, but this is far from a UK specific issue. Indeed, the UK economy has been more resilient than many had expected earlier in the year. Back in January the consensus forecast for UK GDP was
 for growth of 1 per cent in 2026. Following heightened geopolitical uncertainty this dropped back to 0.6 per cent in the Spring, but expectations have returned to January&rsquo;s 1 per cent figure in the latest August consensus numbers. Inflation
 expectations remain higher than they were back in January, but despite recent increases inflation is expected to top out below some of the higher forecasts we&rsquo;ve seen in recent months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789449805/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide1.png" />
<h2>House prices </h2>
Mortgage approvals dropped back in July, with 15 per cent fewer approvals for house purchase than in the same month a year earlier. An assortment of housing stats released over the summer have pointed to what remains a broadly flat market.
The Nationwide House Price Index, the first to report August figures, shows prices were 1.6 per cent higher than they were a year ago. This is a slightly rosier picture than that portrayed by the Lloyds Index (formerly the Halifax House Price Index) which
 puts prices just 0.1 per cent higher than July 2025 (we&rsquo;ll need to wait until Monday for their August number). Most markets have seen marginal price increases, but price growth has remained broadly below inflation. This means that affordability
 continues to improve, at least when viewed on a house price-to-income ratio basis. Nationwide figures show inflation adjusted house prices are 18 per cent lower than they were in Q1 2022 (non-inflation adjusted they are 7 per cent higher) with the
 house price to household income ratio nationally at its lowest since 2014 at 5.6X income. But higher mortgage rates continue to erode the benefits of the increase in spending power.
<h2>Mortgage markets</h2>
Higher bond yields and sticky inflation have impacted swap rates, meaning average fixed rates have crept up in recent months, all at a time when we&rsquo;d been hoping for some respite. Those shopping for a two-year fix are currently paying an average
 of 5.5 per cent according to Moneyfacts, with best-buy rates circa 4.5. This means that homeowners are having to pay more each month to borrow the same amount or if they keep their outgoings the same are forced to borrow less.
If we take an average priced London home, currently &pound;554,000 according to the Land Registry, those purchasing at 75 per cent loan to value over 25-years would be paying just over &pound;2,550 per month for a repayment mortgage at 5.5 per cent. This
 is almost &pound;3,000 a year more than those who managed to secure a 4.5 per cent fix, and almost &pound;6,000 a year higher than if rates were at 3.5 per cent&mdash;the level best-buys hit back in early February.
Or to keep repayments at the &pound;2,000 a month paid at 3.5 per cent buyers paying 4.5 per cent would be borrowing &pound;40,000 less and at 5.5 per cent their borrowing power would be reduced by &pound;76,000.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789449807/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide2.png" />
<h2>Rental Market</h2>
A cautious sales market continues to benefit lettings. July figures from HomeLet show rents rose 4.3 per cent nationally in the last 12 months, with rents in London rising 6 per cent over the same period.
Respondents to the latest RICS survey reported an increase in new tenant enquiries for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, landlord instructions remained down, with a net balance of -22 per cent reporting a fall&mdash;the last time more respondents
 reported an increase was back in March 2022.
<h2>Checking our homework</h2>
With English schools heading back this week it's a good opportunity to check our view on 2026. We reforecast house prices and rents back in May, downgrading our short-term outlook for prices and increasing our rental expectations for 2026. 
Using the latest government figures shows average prices are currently 1.2 per cent higher nationally in June than they were in December. We&rsquo;re forecasting the year to end broadly flat (down 0.5 per cent), which would mean a fall in prices of 1.7
 per cent in H2. In London we&rsquo;re expecting prices to fall 2.5 per cent this year. Current annual falls sit at that level, but prices have risen marginally since December, meaning to end the year at 2.5 per cent down we&rsquo;d need a 3.3 per
 cent reduction in prices in H2.
Average rents (for both new lets and existing tenancies from the ONS Private Rents Index) are up 1.9 per cent since December and 3.7 per cent annually. We're forecasting 3.5 per cent for 2026, meaning we'll need a further 1.6 per cent (or &pound;22) increase
 to rents to hit our December forecast. In London we're forecasting 3 per cent this year, rents rose 2.2 per cent to December to July (up 3 per cent annually) meaning just a further 0.8 per cent needed between now and December. Not far off for the
 UK but a bit light for London? We'll need to wait and see. 
JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing.
Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property

Residential Roundup - 4 September

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With so many returning from their summer break we had hoped to share some more positive news on rates. It’s not all negative, but elevated fuel and energy costs continue to keep the market guessing on inflation, both domestically and overseas. 

With so many returning from their summer break we had hoped to share some more positive news on rates. It&rsquo;s not all negative, but elevated fuel and energy costs continue to keep the market guessing on inflation, both domestically and overseas.&nbsp;

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Big Six Residential Development Report - Summer 2026

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Welcome news of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East has seen markets react favourably. Brent crude prices dropped to below $100 a barrel and shares in several UK and US property REITs have rallied. The outlook for the Bank Rate has also shifted, with markets now expecting a more cautious approach to rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. Forecasters, who had been predicting up to three 25bps increases in 2026 are pulling back and now expecting one. Swap rates at time of writing have also dropped, a positive sign for the fixed rate mortgage market. 
But even if, as hoped, the ceasefire holds, much of the damage done to global supply chain and energy costs will take some time to unravel, with a similar impact on mortgage rates. All of which means any significant rebound in activity in the housing market may well take time to feed through. 
Uncertainty hangs over the housing market
A series of decidedly glum indicators have been released over the last week, highlighting the impact of geopolitical unrest on the UK housing market. First up Halifax, whose house price index suggested prices dipped 0.5 per cent in March compared with
 February, meaning prices were just 0.8 per cent higher than they were a year ago. 
This was followed by the latest RICS survey, the first to fully cover the impact of Middle East conflict, which showed a drop in activity and appetite in the sales market. Needs based buyers were still looking to transact, and those with pre-March mortgage
 deals locked in were still active, but the discretionary market looked like it retreated again last month. 
New buyer enquiries fell sharply, with the net balance declining to -39 per cent from -29 per cent in February&mdash;the weakest reading since August 2023. Agreed sales followed suit, dropping from -13 per cent to -34 per cent, also the lowest since summer
 2023. Near-term sales expectations turned markedly pessimistic at -33 per cent (from -4 per cent), whilst twelve-month outlook sentiment weakened to -1 per cent. New instructions registered a net balance of -6 per cent, indicating a marginally slower
 flow of listings. Unsold stock on agents' books rose to an average of 47 properties, up from 45 at the start of the year.
On pricing, near-term expectations dropped to -43 per cent from -19 per cent in the previous month indicating accelerating downward pressure anticipated over the next three months. The twelve-month outlook sits at +2 per cent, suggesting a broadly flat
 trend&mdash; but is down sharply from +43 per cent in January.
But while caution reigned in the sales market, tenant demand rose (+10 per cent net balance in March) alongside a continued drop in landlord instructions (remaining firmly negative at -25 per cent). Expectations for rental growth strengthened to +29 per
 cent, with agents citing persistent supply-demand imbalances and expectations that the uncertain outlook in the sales market could benefit the rental market.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart1.jpg" />
Construction activity remains muted
Geopolitical uncertainty also weighed heavily on the latest construction PMIs. The UK construction sector's woes deepened in March 2026, with house building bearing the brunt of the downturn, compounded by a wet first quarter that made construction even
 more challenging. Residential activity recorded the sharpest decline across all construction categories, with the index falling to 38.2&mdash;well below both commercial construction (47.1) and civil engineering (44.8). Remember, a score below 50 signals
 a contraction in activity. This marks the fifteenth consecutive month that the sector has contracted, driven by falling client confidence and a dearth of new project starts.
What's particularly concerning for housebuilders is the acceleration and unpredictability of build costs. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since November 2022, with nearly half of all construction firms reporting rising cost burdens.
 The outbreak of war in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains, pushing up fuel, transportation and raw material costs. International shipping delays meant that supplier delivery times rose for the first time since last summer, adding further
 pressure to already squeezed margins.
Falling short
The latest estimated net additions figures highlight the need for further incentives to develop. Government figures suggest 191,300 homes were completed in England between 1 April 2025 and 15 March this year. This was 17,300 short of the previous 12-month
 total. Comparing estimates on net additions with housing needs targets shows the clear need for further intervention, with net additions (the most generous measure of housing delivery) 48 per cent shy of the 370,000 annual housing need across England.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart2.jpg" />
Housing Bank to the rescue? 
With a 180,000-home supply shortfall, debt more expensive, and viability more challenged, the launch of the National Housing Bank could not have come at a more important time. The National Housing Bank (NHB) is part of a raft of Homes England and GLA
 initiatives to promote further activity in the housing market, effectively aiming to alleviate some of the debt-based challenges faced by those delivering homes. 
The scheme was launched with much fanfare, with a &pound;100m JV with Aviva championed as an example of how the schemes could turbocharge activity. The NHB has &pound;16 billion of debt, equity and guarantees aiming to assist in the delivery of half a
 million new homes. The bank also needs buy-in from the private sector, with an investment prospectus published to attract more than &pound;50 billion of private capital. Announced in the 2025 Spending Review, the Bank is a wholly government-owned
 subsidiary of Homes England. Its mission is to drive housing delivery and create communities, with returns only covering the cost of government borrowing. The Bank will work alongside Homes England as an independent subsidiary to provide tailored
 support packages.
The NHB is open to different providers from large housebuilders to SMEs. Crucially it is not limited to those operators providing affordable or build-for-sale homes, with build-to-rent and later living also able to access funds. From 1 April 2026, the
 NHB offers seven debt products:
1-SME accelerator loans - providing site-specific lending enabling smaller developers to establish track records and scale operations. Targeted at supporting firms currently delivering up to 250 homes a year but looking to grow their
 output. 
2-Revolving credit facilities - working with commercial lenders to provide multi-site facilities and land loans, again targeted at helping SME developers expand capacity.
3-Senior and mezzanine loans &ndash; targeted at mid-size developers with project-level funding, particularly for build-to-rent, later living and brownfield regeneration. Funding will sit alongside private capital to bring forward stalled
 projects.

4-Corporate balance sheet lending - supports housebuilders directly and sits alongside commercial lending, a key focus is supporting those specialising in Modern Methods of Construction.
5-Lending alliances - creating platforms leveraging private sector capital to broaden the Bank's reach and scale debt finance availability to SME housebuilders.
6-Infrastructure loans - long-term funding up to 15 years to large housebuilders and master developers for upfront infrastructure needs ranging from roads to placemaking.
7-Low interest loans for RPs - offers below-market interest rates to Registered Providers to unlock social and affordable housing investment, addressing pressures from increased debt costs and rising capital expenditure demands.
Partners are urged to reach out to their regional Homes England teams with specific sites or potential opportunities. With more information on the National Housing Bank available <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026-html#fnref:1">here.</a> 
JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. 
Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property

Residential Roundup - 10 April

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<h3 class="featuredProperties__title">Featured properties </h3>

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UAE Residential Market Demonstrates Resilience in Q1 2026

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